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Implications de l’unification monétaire européenne sur les pays candidats à l’adhésion : le cas de la Roumanie

Domenii publicaţii > Economie + Tipuri publicaţii > Tezã de doctorat (nepublicatã)

Autori: Diana Calin

Editorial: 2004.

Rezumat:

The thesis tries to answer the following questions: Which are the main consequences of the European monetary unification on the Central and Eastern European Countries (CEEC)? If the Maastricht criteria are maintained, will the CEES be able to enter the Euro Area? How important are the risks associated to the participation to ERM II, for CEEC? Which should be the right parity between the national money of CEEC and the euro, before entering the Euro Area? Which is the equilibrium exchange rate for CEEC? From all CEEC, a special attention was given to Romania.
The main results (and personal contributions) concern:
– the construction of an aggregate indicator for measuring the sustainability of ERM II participation;
– the use of an original method of analysis of the prudential macroindicators, based on the signal-approach, but which eliminates the inconvenient of binary answer and which does not allow any compensation among individual indicators;
– an empiric study evaluating the sustainability of CEECs participation to ERM II, including 10 CEEC (Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia and Romania) and a 10-year period (1993-2002);
– determination of the equilibrium exchange rate, for the same group of 10 CEEC, using the BEER approach, and the panel analysis, for the period 1996-2003;
– determination of the equilibrium exchange rate between the Romanian leu and the euro, trough a monthly, time-series based analysis, for the period between January 1999 – March 2004.

Cuvinte cheie: fragilitatea sectorului financiar, curs valutar de echilibru, Uniunea Economica si Monetara // financial sector fragility, equilibrium exchange rate, Economic and Monetary Union

URL: http://www.geocities.com/diapunctc/tezaDianaCalinFr.pdf