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Modeling inflation dynamics. A practical approach

Domenii publicaţii > Economie + Tipuri publicaţii > Articol în revistã ştiinţificã

Autori: Laura Ungureanu, Viorel Matei

Editorial: Journal of Applied Research in Finance, Volume1, Issue2(2) , p.228-237, 2009.


Over the past decades, the ultimate goal of central bank monetary policy has systematically moved towards monetary stability and low-inflation credibility. To obtain this goal, various strategies have been implemented, such as the use of explicit intermediate targets or target ranges for some monetary aggregate, or the commitment to maintain a fixed exchange rate with a low-inflation country.
Therefore, in this study we present a dynamical model for monetary policy. The model emphasis the principal interdependence that is stabilized between the system variables (real stock of money, rate of inflation) and the variation of these in function of the parameters values. In this paper we address the issue whether a switch to inflation targeting can help build monetary policy credibility and can substitute for a track record of low inflation.

Cuvinte cheie: mathematical modeling, inflation dynamics, monetary policy, forecast