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GIS-based assessment of the landform distribution of 2100 predicted climate change and its influence on biodiversity and natural protected areas in Romania

Domenii publicaţii > Biologie + Tipuri publicaţii > Articol în revistã ştiinţificã

Autori: Petrisor AI

Editorial: Oltenia. Studii si comunicari. Stiintele Naturii, 26(1), p.247-256, 2010.


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Potential effects of climate change include loss of biodiversity and ecodiversity due to direct influences and habitat changes and impacts on agricultural systems resulting into the decrease of productivity. While direct assessment is rarely possible, the evaluation methodology focused on statistical modelling. This study used the Geographical Information Systems to look at the spatial distribution of 2100 predicted temperatures in Romania by landform and biogeographical regions, assess their potential influences on natural protected areas, and model the shift of biogeographical regions under the hypothesis according to which increased temperature result into the expansion of warmer regions over the colder ones. Results suggest that, according to the predictions, the most important threats occur in natural protected areas from the mountain regions and in agriculture, and that the Steppic region could expand over the Continental and Black Sea ones, with caveats due to the hypothesis and methodology.

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Cuvinte cheie: biodiversity, ecodiversity, climate change, biogeographical region